Last weekend, I visited UP, my home state.
Today a million dollar question is, who will win 2017 UP election. SP+Congress, BJP or BSP. Being a resident of Uttar Pradesh and having a keen interest in politics I think there is no one who can predict, who is going to win this battle. Some of my political observations from my last visit regarding this elections are here:
- It is UP where people vote on the basis of caste and religion.
- There’s anger against BJP in the rural state due to demonetization.
- Akhilesh is popular. People who don’t like SP sympathize with him and like him.
- People are happy with the India’s longest expressway and that Lucknow has a metro.
- People are unhappy with the crime but not that much.
- Mayawati is campaigning before the radar hence it’s difficult to assess her.
- BJP is faceless in the state which will affect it.
Utter Pradesh has 1/7 part of Indian population .which means 190 million of the population.
Now let’s talk about past UP political achievement. In 2003 BJP won the up legislative elections with the majority vote, After 5 the year 2007 SP won the election than 2014 BJP won the parliament election. All party did win with a majority vote.
Meanwhile, Alignments between Congress and Samajwadi Party along with RJD are on the pipeline.This strategy of Alignment among major political parties are on a card to keep BJP out from an election in UP. This Alignment can disturb whole mathematics in UP election.
For the last 2 decades, Uttar Pradesh has witnessed a 4 cornered battle comprising of 2 National parties and the 2 caste-based regional parties. The unique feature of Uttar Pradesh politics has been the inconsistency of the voters. In 2017
Before SP and INC alliance:
- There were more chances for coalition government as big players like SP, BSP, BJP has more chances to gain around 100 or more seats each. INC would be a big loser if it goes alone.
- I have seen some opinion poll surveys which are overestimated the BJP based on 2014 general elections tsunami. I think that is not the case now.
- BSP has been given edge over other parties which may be true to some extent
- BJP has projected the development as their agenda & disputes inside SP is a added advantage. But BJP doesn’t have a credible & charismatic face for Chief Minister in UP. It almost depends on Narendra Modi rallies. Demonetization misfire may create some hurdles for BJP in UP
After SP and INC alliance:
- The emergence of Akhilesh Yadav as leader of SP and projecting development as a sole agenda made him the strong contender for Chief Minister again. Earlier his govt has been seen as multiple power centers from the same family.
- INC decent vote bank & some minorities support may hugely benefit SP-INC alliance and which may lead them towards an easy victory.
Conclusion: SP-INC alliance may form the govt
So If SP feud end soon, Akhilesh is the next CM. Looks like BJP knows that and is using Amar Singh to ensure the feud stretches as much as possible.
The other possibility is a hung assembly which like less probable now, given the Indian voter has more become very decisive.
Now if we take a closer look no one is going to get the majority in next Uttar Pradesh state election.
Revolution always reaches a point where the protagonists are termed as anarchists, but for the overhaul of the existing corrupt system anarchy is the pre requisite.
After the large win in Delhi elections and a lot of successful projects, AAP has become much popular in Punjab than other local parties. On the daily level, I discuss the things about Punjab Politics with my Punjabi Friends and on social media, and I always got some positive feedback fro AAP from them. Of course, the party has huge popularity and credit goes to past governments and their zero level work.
Why AAP will be the first choice in Punjab:
Punjab government completing it’s 5 years, and still, Punjab has bucket full problems. Today Corruption, unemployment, and Drugs are the main problems of Punjab. Also, the government is facing a huge anti-incumbency due to its corrupt practices, the dictatorial attitude of the deputy CM towards other leaders and a very huge rate of unemployment. These all issues have overshadowed their achievements. On the other hand, people hardly believe in Captain Amarinder Singh. Yes, he usually gets the support of urban and business class but remembers that most of the people in Punjab live in villages. Though Captain has a pro-farmer policy but side by side his support for privatization of education and health sector failed to create his good image among various government sector employees and bureaucrats.
So after facing these problems, people want some change, some alternative. A party which can change the Punjab. Currently, this is being seen in form of Aam Admi Party.
“दिल्ली हुयी हमारी है – अब पंजाब की बारी है”
- Anti-incumbency: here is a heavy anti- incumbency on BJP-SAD government which gives a fair chance for AAP.
- Change: People are used to SAD-BJP and Congress governments and want change.
- Anti – Drug Campaign: This will surely help them as this is a major issue in Punjab and AAP are frontrunners in leading this campaign.
- Delhi Factor: Delhi elections have boosted the confidence of AAP and all workers are enthusiastic.
- Media: Media will surely give the required attention to AAP as it is the newcomer.
- Anti- corruption: Akali- BJP has done a lot of corruption already and people are fed up with them and as Congress can’t raise an anti-corruption issue, AAP will surely score good points in that terms.
I have some expectations from AAP. I know they can win, they have that much potential but they have to find an honest CM face. As people in Punjab are fed up of Akalis. Punjab has become a hotbed of drugs and druggists. Unemployment, closing factories, Huge mismanagement of funds by the government.All these factors make an opportunity for AAP to win elections.
PS: I’m not from Punjab, just analyzed as I know a lot of people in Punjab and I took their opinion.
Happy New Year -2017. Hope your 2016 was interesting and inspiring. For me it was an year of failures and successes. The most important thing I learned is to keep doing your best, with the best of intentions.
Beside this great learning I learnt few important things:
- I learnt to tackle hurt and pains.
- Learnt that, Writing is one of the most powerful tool.
- Learnt that, sometimes I have to distance myself to see things clearly.
- I became more confident within myself and matured as a person.
- Learnt to interact with emotional heartbreaks.
- Learnt that, make the right decisions in the right time is important.
- It doesn’t matter that whatever situations I am dealing with. I should not miss such opportunities in life, some are come only once.
- Learnt to spend time with the right people.
- Mother is the only soul who really cares.
- Earning plays a large and significant role in Self-identity and shaping our lives.
- Sometimes even being far away from family/home is necessary to learn things in life apart from the comfort zone.
- Silence speaks louder than words. As well as a single word can make a big difference.
- Learnt that, there are plenty of ways to release stress and pain. But, expecting someone to lend their shoulders to cry on is not one of them.
- It’s never too late to learn a new skill.
- Outing/vacation means a lot and needed in life.
2016 Brief: 3 Books, 12+ Talks, 150+ Blogs, 30+ travels, 2000+ Cups of Tea and …. 😉
My Books in 2016:
2016 was Interesting and inspiring for me because, I delivered my Gyan in more than 12 talks, including TedxPandari and ITS Students session.
In 2016 I have written more than 150 Blogs, which includes- Technical Blogs, Political Blogs, Social Blogs- You can read these blogs: blog.ankurmishra.in, dailycodebook.com, blog.foreantech.com, yugalvani.com etc.
Also, I have tried to communicate with some of our leaders through Open letters, Some of then sharing here:
In 2016 I have reviewed more than 50 Movies, You can read my reviews: yugalvani.com
Foreantech: In 2016, Foreantech performed 20x better than last year, Team is doing fantastic. Every member motivates me, inspire me to do things in the better way and fast. (Visit: www.foreantech.com)
To join our team, Email at: email@example.com
I learnt many new things in 2016:
Example: Cycling and Guitar.
One thing I will miss you in 2017 is my Robby, My Best buddy.
And will add many other things here today.
Well, I am drafting this list for my 2017. Obviously this crazy person is doing nothing on the new year’s Morning. 😉
- Make sure that I stick to these resolutions. This completely makes sense to me.
- Health and Body. First and foremost priority. Enough of laziness. I want to overcome my poor body maintaience. Daily cycling and Room Gym will add values here.
- Foreantech: Crazy for Foreantech, Target is to do 25X than 2016. Time to execute.
- Kavishala: Dedicated to poets and poetic society of young India. We’ll launch our iOS and android app this year.
- KitabShala: Developing a platform for book lovers, dedicated to readers, readers and readers. We’ll launch this platform by Feb’2017.
- Lovers. Labours and Leaders: Writing this book in 2017, Will try to finish my March’2107. This is an interesting story for everyone.
- After finishing above book, Next book is planned on Indian Politics and Politicians
- Will learn some new technologies and programming language.
- Will resume Helping Others from Jan’2017, will try to teach kids every weekend. (Self Prrmis)
And the list goes on……
Break some, Add some.
So finally I’ve bribed my new year with tons of expectations, excitement and enthusiasm.
Have a very good day and year ahead.
Today we are in the long queue of Banks and ATMs because we refused to go out for half an hour (yes, half an hour is all it takes), to vote, in hope of better governance. At least not Bhakt Sarkar.
Desh So Raha Hai !!
Today We are in the long queue, very long queue without any cash. Rural areas are struggling, the Poor public is crying, Formers are dying and we are in the laughing and finding false excuses to making ourselves happy.
I know many excuses will come after this.
Sharing my personal experience:
I’ll give you my personal experience. I’m 24 years old having voted in 3 elections – the General (MP) elections, the State Assembly (MLA) elections, and the BMC (local authority) elections.
Here are some of my experiences:
- Each time, I have done considerable research to find the right candidate.
- Each time, I have voted for candidates from independent parties who have done considerable work independently and have shared their entire road map for the future, if elected.
- Each time the candidate I’ve voted for has lost, and lost by a considerable margin.
- And each time, a candidate from a major party with a criminal background and minimal education mustered up more votes than the candidate I voted for (not necessarily won)
Now most would tell me that this is the exact reason why he/she would not vote since good candidates don’t stand a chance of winning be it herd mentality voting, blind voting, party politics etc.
I’m not claiming that one should always vote independent candidates. My ask is, just spend some time in researching ALL candidates in your constituency. With just a little research, I’m sure your one vote will not count as just one vote in the end.
It’s not the presence of biased, shallow research votes that is causing the less deserving candidates to win. Rather it’s the absence of educated, informed votes that’s causing a deserving, qualified candidate to lose.
Note: Vote, make your voice heard, exercise your right, fulfill your responsibility.
Its more than 8 years now, but terror is still alive.
I live in Delhi. So, I have not faced actual terror. But for the next 4-5 days, my TV was continuously showing the live broadcast of Mumbai terror incidents, And those incidents have left a terrific image on every Indian’s mind including me.
Pakistan Government, ISI, LeT are the culprits. Actually with the help of Azmal Kasav, Indian Government has known those information.
Some of our brave NSG commandos, Havildars, Encounter specialists have lost their lives to save the common people.
I feel that those attacks were a wake-up call for us, our intelligence agencies and other security forces like the Coast Guards. The attacks led to major revamps in various government departments and our coastal borders are a well guarded now.
After this incident, I thought Indian security agencies made their best system to stop the next 26/11. But again, we faced Pathankot and Uri Attack. In Uri Attack, 8 soldiers were killed during their sleep unguarded and did not get killed in a crossfire or while fighting the enemies. In same way we lost many lives in Pathankot.
Does this not raise serious security concerns? Particularly when It is happening again and again.
But for me every year this day reminds to unite and salute the Indian Army. They are the silent guardians. They are the watchful protectors. They are our Dark Knights.
I Salute to Mumbai 26/11 Martyrs and Survivors.
Dear Pradhan Sewak Ji, As per your Feku things you just carried out a surgical strike on black money. I want to discuss something with you, but first, I am sharing some stats-
- Bad Loans of Indian Banks right now is close to Rs. 6,00,000 crore.
- PSU Banks are in a miserable condition right now, and need an immediate infusion of money to shore up their lending capacities.
- A few weeks back credit rating agency Moody’s had stated that Indian Banks require Rs. 1.25 lakh crore capital infusion.
- In July 2016 the Centre injected 23,000 crores into 13 Public Sector Banks.
- Jaitley said it in 2015 that the Centre would pump in more than 70,000 crores in PSU banks in coming 4 years.
- This demonetization is nothing but a measure to infuse money in those ailing Banks so as to shore up their lending capacities.
GVK Reddy (GVK Group) (33933 Crores)
Venugopal Dhoot (Videocon Group) (45405 Crores)
Madhusoodan Rao (Lanco Group) (47102 Crores)
G M Rao (GMR Group) (47976 Crores)
Sajjan Jindal (JSW Group) (58171 Crores)
Manoj Gour (Jaypee Group) (75163 Crores)
Goutam Adani (Adani Group) (96031 Crores)
Shashi Ruia & Ravi Ruia (Essar Group) (101000 Crores)
Anil Aggarwal (The Vedanta Group) (103000 Crores)
Anil Ambani (Reliance Group)(125000 Crores)
1. Stock Market would crash – People without having a clear idea about the situation would try to save their fortunes and would start pulling out their money from the stocks that are going to be hit by this storm.
2. People with huge piles of paper currency are going to lose their calm – The day will start with Trade unions and other such unions coming together to protest and do marches.
3. Money’ll be sucked out of the market. – In coming weeks or months, there would be so much decline in trade and commerce.
4. Decline in the GDP – the GDP of India will decline heavily as confusion and tax obstacles in trade will hamper growth.
5. Inconvenience to people:– People will have to become slaves of banks and government officials. Long queues will be a common sight from nowadays.See the long queues ? All middle class and poor people can be seen in queues.
6. Loss to common People :- Many people have fake currency that it unintentional or earned by hard work and they are using it without knowing. Now banks will refuse to take fake money it direct loss for innocent people.
7. Rise in corruption:- imagine this, you have pass Rs. 1 lacs you go to exchange, cashier said “sab nakli hai be! line se hat baki bhi khade hai”,then you are screwed, whther it is fake or not.While local politicians and powerfull people will exchange their notes easily by paying bribes and CAs will facilitate them by finding all loopholes. CAs will be biggest beneficiaries as people have to employ their expensive services.
It will trigger more corruption, which is one of the most effective sources of black money. Those who give cash to the banks, will be asked for explanations, which will increase corruption. It seems it is election funding program for the rulers.
8. Loss of Tax Payers Money :- Rs 500 prnting costs Rs 2.5 and Rs.1000 costs Rs 3 , (approx ).Multiply it by number of notes present in India ;now government has to pay this money from taxpayers.
9. Inflation:- Due to above price rise will occur. All basic goods will cost more.
10. Now understand that since most of the black money is stored in Rs. 500 and Rs. 1000 currency notes. Since these notes cannot be tendered anymore, the consumption demand will go down drastically (how will people buy jewellery, property and other high value items without black money?). As consumption demand will hit a new low, the economy will essentially find itself in a recession. By this time, government will also start another round of voluntary disclosure scheme and fill its coffers with unprecedented disclosure taxes and fines.
A good way to loot people like the British regime which introduced taxation.
It is an Indian thing in villages and small towns for housewives to keep their saved cash hidden away from their husbands and other family members. Invalidation of Rs 500 and 100o notes will jeopardize this scheme. Households with liquor problems will provide the husbands to seize control of the hidden cash. Also, general day to day purchase may be impacted due to lack of cash in hand.
Many state elections are coming in next few months, demonetization is not good for BJP’s Health, it may give you big shock in Next State Elections.
Many of my friends are commenting on me, I am not accepting good things. Modi ji did a historical thing which will change the India. But really he did? I actively support this move, but the implementation is poor and the blame partly lies with the media and the Opposition.
After a long thought process, I am writing this.
Think about it for a moment. This move does not affect the upper-class elites who can use cards or survive with their existing cash or the ones who actually hoarded black-money in the form of dollars in the Swiss banks, but the Aam Aadmi in the suburban and rural backgrounds. They really feel the pinch in the pocket and would never forgive Modi if situation goes out of control and snowballs into large-scale riots. (I hope it does not , I actively support this move, but the implementation is poor and the blame partly lies with the media and the Opposition).
Elections in India, is never fought on the lines of corruption, economy or policies. Its only us- the middle and upper-class elites who can afford to use social media- talk on those lines. The majority of rural India- still votes on the lines of hunger, employment, caste and religion.
The demonetization affects traders, merchants and small vendors. Infact, traders form the core votebank of BJP in Gujarat and Maharashtra. Their businesses are running in losses. Read Here
The farmers also find it difficult as this move would threaten their Rabi crop sowing.
A story of a 96-year old who died waiting in a bank for exchanging his notes is shared quite extensively across social media as a ‘proof ’ that demonetization has actually killed people directly-
Wow- Thats an eye-ball grabbing headline- Demonetization Woes!. Indeed??.
Never mind the fact that the man was actually suffering from a history of strokes for the past couple of years and would have died anyway- irrespective of him standing in a queue. But who cares about facts?. The man was standing in the bank to exchange his notes. He suffered a stroke and died. So blame the demonetization move and brand Modi as a murderer.
Janta don’t want another Godhra Modi Sir.
If the transition of the notes is smooth and people face no hassles, then this short-term inconvenience would be forgotten and forgiven. If not- people will remember the short term pain more than the intentions of the government behind this move. And it will subsequently reflect in the next elections.
हेल्लो अखिलेश यादव जी,
प्रधानमंत्री जी – भारत माता की जय !!